Floods, Ice Storms & Heat Waves With No Grid

Floods here (County plan, pp. 43–46): they come October to April, from the Illinois, Rogue and Applegate rivers and their creeks; Slate Creek and Butcher Knife Creek have flooded too. Homes stand in mapped floodplains at Cave Junction (the Illinois), Kerby, O'Brien and Wilderville (p. 44). The benchmark is the Christmas flood of 1964: 10 inches of rain in six days, the Rogue at 35 ft at Grants Pass (flood stage is 24.5), the Rogue and Illinois valleys cut off (p. 45). Cave Junction got 8.12 inches in one day, on 22 December 1964 (NRCS soil survey, p. 5). In January 1997, 4 inches in 48 hours brought the Rogue to 90,100 cubic feet a second at Grants Pass and a state of emergency; in February 2015 a foot of water covered US-199 near Selma, Butcher Knife Creek flooded, and roads closed near Selma and O'Brien (p. 46). The storms of 1996–97 set off 9,582 recorded landslides across the state (p. 52), and about 70% of the county's land is highly or very highly prone to slides (p. 50).

Watch the rain upstream, not just here. "A storm that produces heavy rain higher on the mountain could produce a flash flood lower on the mountain," and snowmelt adds to it (TC 3-97.61, p. 27). Floods can run "many miles downstream" of the rain (FM 3-97.6, p. 15). A warm, heavy rain on snow (an atmospheric river) is the classic winter flood (general practice). On a burned slope, about half an inch an hour of rain can start a debris flow (USGS, p. 1): keep a rain gauge (Navigation & Weather guide).

Watch your creek like a weather spotter: is the water standing or flowing? Rising, steady or falling? Is it in a place known to flood (Spotter Guide, p. 5)? Drive a stake at the bank, mark it every foot, and read it every hour through a rising night (rule of thumb).

Learn where water has been. "Observe the previous flood marks" (Kephart, Vol. 1, p. 213): "driftwood and weeds washed into the branches of waterside trees" show the old flood level (Shifts and Expedients, p. 74). "It is quite common ... for wide bottoms to be flooded in a night" (Kephart, Vol. 1, p. 217).

A marked stake read every hour, and the old flood level that driftwood in the branches shows (Spotter Guide, p. 5; Shifts and Expedients, p. 74; a diagram drawn for this guide).

Signs a slide or debris flow is coming (FEMA, p. 108; FEMA 2020, p. 13; USGS, p. 1):

• doors or windows that stick for the first time; new cracks in plaster, foundations, the ground or the driveway;
• bulging ground at the foot of a slope; water breaking out of the ground in new places; a creek that suddenly rises or falls;
• fences, poles or trees that tilt; a rumble that grows louder; "cracking, breaking, roaring, or a fast-moving freight train."

Get out of its path at once. "Watch for flooding after a landslide," because the same storm starts both (FEMA 2020, p. 13).

• People first. Children, elders and the sick go early, by daylight, to a high place picked ahead, by a route that crosses no creek (rule of thumb). Debris flows "are faster than you" (USGS, p. 1).
• Food and supplies live on shelves "safely out of the way of contaminated water" (PNW 612, p. 22), not on a basement or shop floor. Move what you can upstairs before the water comes (FEMA, p. 53).
• Generator, fuel and switches above the flood line: "the entire system must be above the flood level" (P-1019, p. 110). Run it in the rain only "under an open, canopy-like structure on a dry surface where water cannot reach it" (CPSC, p. 1). Fuel, poison and paint go up or out, or they end up in the water you clean up (rule of thumb).
• Livestock: keep winter paddocks "on high ground away from water" (EC 1558, p. 5), and take horses off low pasture before the fall rains (p. 18). Poultry and rabbits go in crates to high ground; never leave animals shut in a flooding barn: open the gates or cut the fence (rule of thumb).
• Sandbags only hold back shallow, slow water (rule of thumb). Fill each bag about 75 percent and interlock them like bricks (FM 90-3, p. 80). Barriers and a "check valve" in the sewer line keep water out of the house (FEMA, p. 53).

Going back in

• Don't go in if floodwater is still around the building or you smell gas (FEMA, p. 182), or if the walls are cracked, doors and windows are "out of square," or the foundation has shifted (FEMA 2020, p. 31). No lanterns, candles or torches inside until you are sure there is no gas (FEMA, p. 183).
• Switch your flashlight on outside; its battery "may produce a spark that could ignite leaking gas" (p. 182). Snakes and animals often shelter upstairs: open a window and let them leave (p. 184).
• A flooded basement: pump out about a third of the water a day, or "The walls may collapse and the floor may buckle" (p. 183).
• Wear goggles, work gloves, a hard hat and waterproof boots (FEMA 2020, p. 12).

Power, appliances and fuel

• Breaker off if you can reach it dry. Wet appliances: power off, unplug, let them dry, and have them checked before use (FEMA, p. 183). "Rubber boots and gloves are not adequate protection from electric shock" (EPA, p. 3).
• Propane: if the tank has shifted, the lines are bent or broken, or the regulator or an appliance's controls were under water, it needs a qualified person (propane tips, p. 10). With none to call, replace a flooded regulator and don't relight a flooded appliance (rule of thumb); more in the Fuel guide.
• Drums and chemical containers that floated onto your land are a job for the health department (EPA, p. 3): leave them shut, away from water, and never burn them (rule of thumb); see "Hazardous waste" in the Sanitation guide.

The well and drinking water

• "DO NOT TURN ON THE PUMP" and don't drink or wash with the water. Wells "more than 10 years old or less than 50 feet deep are likely to be contaminated, even if there is no apparent damage." Don't run the pump until the wiring is dry and checked, and its silt cleaned out (EPA, p. 1).
• Disinfect it (p. 2):
  1. Run an outside hose until the water is clear. Pour a gallon of plain, unscented bleach down the casing (gloves, goggles).
  2. Run the hose back into the casing until it smells of chlorine; then open every cold tap until each smells of it.
  3. Wait 6 to 24 hours, using none of it. Then flush it away from plants, streams and the septic system until the smell is gone.
  4. Test for bacteria 7 to 10 days later.
• It may stay unsafe "for many months" as polluted ground water moves, so test again. Bleach does nothing for pesticides, metals or other chemicals (p. 3). Until then boil or treat every drop (Water Purification guide); doses for your well's size are in "Keeping well water clean" in the Water Wells guide.

The septic system

• "Septic systems should not be used immediately after floods. Drain fields will not work until underground water has receded" (EPA, p. 3). "Do not flush toilets until you know that sewage lines are intact" (FEMA, p. 183).
• Don't pump the tank empty while the ground is soaked: "empty tanks are buoyant and will try to float out of the ground." Look for soil washed off the tank, broken lids and ports; pumps and panels that were under water must be checked before the power goes back on (Texas A&M, p. 4).
• Meanwhile use a bucket toilet or latrine (Sanitation guide).

Food to throw out

• "Throw away all food and other supplies that may have been contaminated or have come into contact with floodwater" (FEMA 2020, p. 31), and food from damaged cans (EM 9331, p. 8). That includes sacks of grain, flour, anything in paper, cardboard or plastic bags, and home-canned jars, whose lids don't keep floodwater out (rule of thumb).
• The refrigerator is safe about 4 hours with the door shut. Throw out meat, fish, eggs and leftovers above 40 °F for over two hours (FEMA 2020, p. 31), and refrigerated medicines after a day without power unless the label says otherwise (p. 15).
• If you cannot afford to lose them, undamaged factory cans can be saved: peel the labels, scrub, boil 10 minutes, and mark the contents on the lid (rule of thumb).

Mud, drying out and mold

• "Clean and disinfect everything that got wet. Mud left from floodwater can contain sewage and chemicals" (FEMA, p. 54). The strengths of bleach for floors and objects are in "Chlorine strengths from household bleach" in the Sanitation guide.
• Dry it fast. Open every door and window on dry days, and pull out soaked carpet, padding, mattresses, insulation and the wet part of wallboard; what can't be dried in about two days will grow mold. Wear an N95 mask to tear out moldy material (rule of thumb).
• Let the framing dry before you close the walls. "any wood moisture content above 20 percent will probably support decay fungi," and mold is a warning that rot can start (Wood-Frame House Construction, p. 201). Rot and its repair: the Shelter guide.

Sickness from floodwater

• Leptospirosis spreads from water fouled by animal urine, "through the skin or mucous membranes," and outbreaks have followed floods. It starts like the flu, with chills, headache and high fever, and can go on to jaundice, kidney failure and meningitis (Zoonoses, pp. 74–75; Leptospirosis). Cover cuts, wear boots and gloves, and wash after any contact (rule of thumb).
• Infected cuts: "Wounds and infection when there's no hospital" in the Field Care guide.

Rebuilding higher

• Raise the furnace, water heater and electric panel, and fit check valves in the sewer line (FEMA, p. 53).
• Keep the well tightly capped: an open well lets "sediment and flood water" in (EPA, p. 1).
• Replant bare slopes soon: lost ground cover "can lead to flash flooding and additional landslides" (FEMA, p. 109).
• Build anything new away from "steep slopes ... drainage ways, or natural erosion valleys" (FEMA, p. 108), and never with earth or straw walls where floods reach (Natural Building guide).

📚 Go deeper: EPA What to Do After the Flood — the well, step by step; Texas A&M — septic systems in outages and floods; FEMA Are You Ready?, pp. 182–184 — returning home.

Winter storms here come October to March, and destructive ones once or twice a decade (County plan, pp. 62, 64). In February 2019 fallen trees closed US-199 at the California line and 2,500 customers lost power around Grants Pass, Cave Junction and O'Brien; in January 2021 heavy snow left 45,000 customers without power (p. 64). The valley is "one way in, one way out": a storm on US-199 can strand Cave Junction, and "all of Cave Junction and the Illinois Valley could be cut off from power for an extended period" (p. 140). Trees here blow over most in the wet season, on shallow roots in saturated ground (p. 62).

Freezing rain is rain "that freezes when it hits the ground, creating a coating of ice on roads, walkways, trees, and power lines" (FEMA, p. 81). Ice and wind snap lines and poles, and trees and limbs breaking under ice bring down more. When damage is widespread, repairs are slow (P-1019, p. 30), and across several states "weeks may pass before power is completely restored" (p. 29).

One warm room

• Fuel first: "store a good supply of dry, seasoned wood" (FEMA, p. 81); how much, and how to burn it safely, is in the Firewood guide.
• Heat one room and close off the rest: "Conserve fuel ... by keeping your residence cooler than normal. Temporarily close off heat to some rooms" (p. 83). Caulk, weatherstrip and cover windows with plastic (p. 82); the plastic lobby and straw insulation are in "One warm room" in the Shelter guide.
• Dress and eat for it: several loose layers, mittens, a hat; eat regularly and drink plenty, but no caffeine or alcohol (p. 83); a sleeping bag or warm blanket for each person (Red Cross, p. 6).
• Share: go to family or friends if your home loses heat for more than a few hours (FEMA 2020, p. 17); two households in one warm house burn half the wood (rule of thumb).
• A heater with no chimney needs 1 square inch of open window for every 1,000 Btu (MSU E-1669, p. 3). Refuel kerosene heaters outside and keep them 3 ft from anything that burns (FEMA, p. 83). Read the carbon monoxide section below.

Frozen pipes

Here the record low is −6 °F at Cave Junction (December 1972), and every few years a cold air mass from the east brings several days well below freezing (NRCS soil survey, p. 5); the county warns of breaks "in un-insulated water lines" (County plan, p. 65).

• If the house will go cold for days, drain it: shut the main valve, "Open all faucets and allow pipes to drain thoroughly" (Household Discoveries, p. 103). First save the water: shutting the main valve traps the water in the pipes and the water-heater tank (Map Your Neighborhood, p. 23); draw it off into clean jugs, with the heater's power or gas off (rule of thumb).
• A wood cookstove with a water jacket (a "water back"): never light it while its pipes are frozen. "direct heat from the pipes will generate steam and severe explosions may follow" (Household Discoveries, p. 104).
• Drain traps in a house left cold can be filled with "crude glycerin, or a very strong brine made of common salt and water" (USDA FB 1460, p. 15).
• Thawing: "The middle of a frozen pipe should never be thawed first," or the trapped water bursts it. Open the faucet and work back toward the supply with hot cloths or hot water. A buried pipe can be thawed by pushing a small tube into it from the house end and pouring boiling water down a funnel (USDA FB 1460, p. 14). No flame (see "Old advice" below).

Thawing a buried pipe: push the thaw pipe forward as the ice melts, with the bucket catching the water that runs back (USDA FB 1460, p. 14).

Trees and lines coming down

• Downed lines: "You cannot tell by looking at them whether they are 'live' or not. NEVER try to move them. NEVER try to hop over them. NEVER walk under a power line that is resting on a tree branch or fallen tree." Rope them off at least 50 feet in all directions (Map Your Neighborhood, p. 23). With the grid down, a neighbor's generator plugged into a wall outlet can still put power on the lines (CPSC, p. 1).
• A line falling near you: current spreads through the ground, so run (one foot on the ground at a time) or stand on one foot (Lessons in Electric Circuits, p. 110).
• How far a tree reaches when it falls: 1 to 1.5 times its height all round; a tree leaning 15° or more falls toward its lean; a broken top or limb reaches 1.5 times its length, farther in wind (FS-1273, pp. 36–37). Stay out of those zones, and out of rooms under big trees, while ice and wind last (rule of thumb).
• Cutting up what fell: windfalls are "difficult to evaluate"; a rootwad cut free can stand back up or roll downhill (EC 1124, p. 10), and on wet ground its roots are "under a lot of pressure" (Saws That Sing, p. 43). Bent saplings and limbs whip when cut: "Bucking and limbing" in the Firewood guide.

Travel in snow and ice

• Drive only if you must: by day, not alone, with someone told your route, on main roads (FEMA, p. 84).
• The car kit: blanket, hat, mittens, shovel, sand, chains, scraper and a bright distress flag (Red Cross, p. 6); jumper cables, a flashlight, water, snacks, and a full tank (FEMA 2020, p. 17).
• Stuck: stay with the car unless a building is close. Run the engine about 10 minutes an hour, with an upwind window open a crack, and keep snow off the exhaust pipe. One person stays awake (FEMA, p. 84). Walking out: the On Foot guide.
• Shovel slowly: overexertion "can bring on a heart attack—a major cause of death in the winter" (FEMA, p. 83).

Cold injuries

• Hypothermia: "uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness"; frostbite: "loss of feeling and white or pale" fingers, toes, ears or nose (FEMA, p. 83).
• What to do: "Heat and cold in the Valley" in the Field Care guide. A frostbitten part is warmed against skin, in an armpit or on a belly, and never "massaged, exposed to a fire or stove, rubbed with snow" (FM 4-25.11, p. 120).

📚 Go deeper: FEMA Are You Ready?, pp. 81–84 — winter storms and extreme cold; P-1019, pp. 29–30 — how ice brings lines down.

Heat here (County plan, pp. 57–58): days with a heat index of 90 °F or more are expected to go from about 13 a year to about 40 by the 2050s. The county saw up to 111 °F in August 2020 and 92–108 °F in the June 2021 heat dome, with two more heat waves later that summer. Grants Pass hit 108 °F as long ago as 1955, and every few years a "sweltering" week or longer comes (NRCS soil survey, p. 5).

"Heat kills by pushing the human body beyond its limits" (FEMA, p. 87). In the 2021 heat dome Portland's county had 72 heat deaths, where a typical year has none (heat report, p. 2). The most died the day after the hottest day (p. 7), and 94% died in their own homes (p. 10).

Keeping the house cool with no power

1. Night: open the windows when the outside air is cooler, and use fans to push hot air out or pull cool air in (EPA smoke guide, p. 49).
2. Morning, before it heats up: close the windows and the shades, blinds and awnings (same page).
3. Shade the glass from outside. Awnings or louvers "can reduce the heat that enters a home by up to 80 percent"; foil-covered cardboard set between the window and the curtains reflects heat back out (FEMA, pp. 88–89). A tarp or shade cloth hung a foot outside a sunny window does the same (rule of thumb).

Open at night, shut before the day heats up, and shade the glass from outside (EPA smoke guide, p. 49; FEMA, p. 88; a diagram drawn for this guide).

4. Live low. "Stay on the lowest floor out of the sunshine" (FEMA, p. 89): a basement or cellar is coolest, and a third of the people who died in apartments lived on the third floor or higher (heat report, p. 10).
5. Let the attic breathe. A ceiling passes "more heat ... when the attic temperature is 150° F. than if it is 120° F" (Wood-Frame House Construction, p. 111): open gable vents and attic hatches to the outside (rule of thumb).
6. Fans: "At temperatures in the upper 90s, fans simply move hot air around" (heat report, p. 12), and above 90 °F don't point one at yourself (EPA smoke guide, p. 49). Wet the skin or a cloth instead, and let the air dry it. In dry heat, a wet sheet hung in a breezy window cools the air coming in. Cook outdoors or early (rules of thumb). Summer afternoons here are dry, with humidity of 25–30% (NRCS soil survey, p. 5), so wet cloths and wet sheets cool well.
7. When the house no longer cools at night, move the people at risk to a cooler house, a basement or deep shade by water (EPA smoke guide, p. 49).
8. Dress light and work early: loose, light-colored clothes, a wide-brimmed hat, no hard work in the hottest hours (FEMA, p. 89). Full sun "can increase the heat index by 15 degrees" (p. 88).

Water in the heat

• Store at least a gallon a person a day; half a gallon is just for drinking, and "Very hot temperatures can double the amount of water needed" (FEMA, p. 34). Hard work in heavy heat can take more than 3 gallons a day (FM 90-3, p. 28).
• Drink before you are thirsty, a little at a time. "When you become thirsty you will be about a 'quart and a half low'" (same page).
• Check the color: "If urine is more colored than diluted lemonade ... there is probably insufficient water intake" (FM 90-3, p. 29).
• No salt tablets: "One salt tablet increases your water requirement by at least a pint" (FM 21-10, p. 13); ordinary meals carry the salt. Too much plain water is dangerous too (Field Care guide).
• Bodies adjust in about two weeks, a good part of it in 4–5 days (FM 90-3, p. 23): ease into heavy work.
• People with heart, kidney or liver disease or epilepsy, or on limited fluids, should ask a doctor before drinking more (FEMA, p. 89).

Who is at risk

• Never leave children or pets alone in closed vehicles (FEMA, p. 89).
• A heat buddy for each person at risk: a visit morning and evening, and a cooler place to go (rule of thumb).
• Heat exhaustion and heat stroke: "Heat and cold in the Valley" in the Field Care guide. Confusion or collapse in the heat is heat stroke: cool them first, fast.

Animals in the heat

• Chickens pant instead of sweating; "severe stress sets in above 40 °C" (104 °F), and 46 °C (115 °F) kills most. Give shade and moving air; white paint reflects "up to 70 percent" of the sun's heat (FAO, p. 27).
• Pigs "can even die from heat stress": handle them only "early morning or evening" (No Animal Doctor, p. 47).
• Water: cattle drink 4–20 gallons a day and heat "dramatically" increases it (EC1514, p. 9); an idle horse 10–12 gallons, more when sweating (G1781, p. 4).
• Each animal's details: "Heat, smoke and fire season" in Chickens, "Heat stress" in Rabbits, shade and wallows in Pigs, and the Cattle, Goats and Horse guides.

📚 Go deeper: Heat report — who died in the 2021 heat dome, and why; FEMA Are You Ready?, pp. 87–90 — extreme heat and its first aid; FM 90-3, pp. 23–29 — water and work in heat.

Windstorms here come mostly October to March, and the county expects 60 mph winds about once in 25 years (County plan, p. 61); most winters bring one or two damaging storms (NRCS soil survey, p. 5). Cave Junction had 64 mph gusts in December 1995, when wet soil left trees easy to topple; in April 2016 trees came down from Cave Junction to Selma; in April 2017 more than 60,000 people lost power, mostly in Josephine County (County plan, p. 60). Poorly anchored manufactured homes and older buildings that need roof repair are the most at risk (p. 61).

• Before: "Cut down or trim trees that may be in danger of falling on your home," and tie down or bring in anything that could blow away (FEMA 2020, p. 15). Measure your big trees against the falling distances above (FS-1273, p. 36).
• Wet ground and ice make it worse. Soaked soil loses strength, and poles and their anchors pull out (P-1019, p. 40); ice adds weight and more surface for the wind (p. 29). Trees on soaked ground go over more easily too (general practice).
• While it blows: stay inside, away from windows and from rooms under big trees. The safest place is "a small, interior, windowless room ... on the lowest level" of a sturdy building (FEMA 2020, p. 13). FEMA says mobile homes "are not safe" when a tornado threatens (p. 16); in a violent windstorm a neighbor's sturdy house is safer (rule of thumb). Lightning: the Navigation & Weather guide.
• Judging wind with no gauge: the twig-and-branch scale in "Reading fire danger with no forecast" in the Wildfire guide (Beaufort scale). A blizzard is wind of 35 mph or more with snow cutting sight to under a quarter mile for three hours or longer (FEMA, p. 81).
• After: the same dangers as an ice storm: lines down, limbs hanging overhead, windfalls under strain (see "Trees and lines coming down" above). Look up before you walk under any tree (rule of thumb).

Before the wet season

• Know where water has reached on your land: old flood marks, and what older neighbors remember.
• A high place to go and a walking route there that crosses no creek; a marked stake at the creek.
• Gutters, culverts and ditches clear — "Flashing, gutters and keeping water away" in the Shelter guide.
• Everyone knows how to shut off the water, power and propane (Map Your Neighborhood, pp. 22–23).
• Well cap tight; septic floor drains can be plugged; a check valve on the sewer line.
• Generator, fuel, food and seed stored above the flood line; animals' winter ground high.

Before winter

• A winter of dry firewood and a clean chimney — Firewood guide.
• The warm room chosen; plastic, tape and blankets for it — Shelter guide.
• A battery CO alarm by the bedrooms, and spare batteries.
• The main water valve found and tagged; everyone knows how to drain the pipes.
• Saw, chains, wedges and fuel ready — Engines & Motors guide; a car kit packed.
• A hypothermia wrap: sleeping bag, pad, tarp, plastic sheet — Field Care guide.

Before summer

• Shade for every sunny window, and foil-covered cardboard cut to fit.
• The coolest room picked, and a heat buddy for everyone at risk.
• Water for at least two gallons a person a day in a heat wave; shade and water for the animals.

All year

• Two weeks of water, food and medicine (What to Expect guide).
• A battery or crank radio (Radio guide), and the twice-a-day weather log (Navigation & Weather guide).
• A neighborhood plan to check on each other ("The neighborhood OK/HELP plan" in the Signals & Morse guide).

📚 Go deeper: County plan, pp. 43–65 — floods, landslides, heat, wind and winter storms in the county, year by year; NRCS soil survey, p. 5 — the valley's climate and its records.